Reduced mobility? Urban exodus? Medium-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on internal population movements in Latin American countries (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the national systems of population movement around the world. Existing work has focused on countries of the Global North and restricted to the immediate effects of COVID-19 data during 2020. Data have represented a major limitation to monitor change in mobility patterns in countries in the Global South. Drawing on aggregate anonymised mobile phone location data from Meta-Facebook users, we aim to analyse the extent and persistence of changes in the levels (or intensity) and spatial patterns of internal population movement across the rural-urban continuum in Argentina, Chile and Mexico over a 26-month period from March 2020 to May 2022. We reveal an overall systematic decline in the level of short- and long-distance movement during the enactment of nonpharmaceutical interventions in 2020, with the largest reductions occurred in the most dense areas. We also show that these levels bounced back closer to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 following the relaxation of COVID-19 stringency measures. However, the intensity of these movements has remained below pre-pandemic levels in many areas in 2022. Additionally our findings lend some support to the idea of an urban exodus. They reveal a continuing negative net balances of short-distance movements in the most dense areas of capital cities in Argentina and Mexico, reflecting a pattern of suburbanisation. Chile displays limited changes in the net balance of short-distance movements but reports a net loss of long-distance movements. These losses were, however, temporary, moving to neutral and positive balances in 2021 and 2022.

A ‘donut effect'? Assessing housing transactions during COVID-19 across the Spanish urban–rural hierarchy

We assess if a 'donut effect' has occurred in Spain during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show a synchronized 30% drop in housing purchases during the national lockdown in 2020, followed by a significant increase from 2021 across the rural-urban continuum, including core cities, suburbs, towns and rural areas, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. We thus found no evidence of a ‘donut effect' in Spain. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Virtual special issue: Internal migration in times of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has potentially altered the system of population movement around the world. As COVID-19 hit cities the hardest in the wake of the pandemic, apocalyptic headlines anticipated the ‘death of cities'. Yet, little was known about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cities and the ways it has shaped the patterns of internal population movement in and out of cities. This virtual special issue aims to consolidate our knowledge of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on internal migration, discuss key lessons we have learnt so far, and identify areas for future enquiry. It brings together evidence from six different countries: Australia, Germany, Japan, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom, covering the pandemic in varying temporal lengths. Systematic patterns emerge. A first commonality is an overall reduction of internal migration rates during the early days of the pandemic but to a lesser degree than expected. Second, the impacts of COVID-19 leading to out-migration from cities seem to have been temporary, though evidence from Spain and Britain points to scarring effects with persistent losses in highly dense areas. Third, changes in internal migration generated small impacts on the population structure of cities but large-scale changes in small, rural and low-density areas. © 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries.

Previous studies have examined the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and fertility. However, little is known about the effect of the pandemic on constraining international migration. We use Eurostat and national statistics data on immigration and ARIMA time-series models to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on immigration flows in 15 high-income countries by forecasting their counterfactual levels in 2020, assuming no pandemic, and comparing these estimates with observed immigration counts. We then explore potential driving forces, such as stringency measures and increases in unemployment moderating the extent of immigration change. Our results show that immigration declined in all countries, except in Finland. Yet, significant cross-national variations exist. Australia (60%), Spain (45%) and Sweden (36%) display the largest declines, while immigration decreased by between 15% and 30% in seven countries, and by less than 15% in four nations where results were not statistically significant. International travel restrictions, mobility restrictions and stay-at-home requirements exhibit a relatively strong relationship with declines in immigration, although countries with similar levels of stringency witnessed varying levels of immigration decline. Work and school closings and unemployment show no relationship with changes in immigration.

The impact of Covid-19 on demographic components in Spain, 2020-31: A scenario approach.

While considerable attention has been paid to the impact of Covid-19 on mortality and fertility, few studies have attempted to evaluate the pandemic's effect on international migration. We analyse the impact of Covid-19 on births, deaths, and international migration in Spain during 2020, comparing observed data with estimated values assuming there had been no pandemic. We also assess the consequences of three post-pandemic scenarios on the size and structure of the population to 2031. Results show that in 2020, excess mortality equalled 16.2 per cent and births were 6.5 per cent lower than expected. Immigration was the most affected component, at 36.0 per cent lower than expected, while emigration was reduced by 23.8 per cent. If net migration values recover to pre-pandemic levels in 2022, the size and structure of the population in 2031 will be barely affected. Conversely, if levels do not recover until 2025, there will be important changes to Spain's age structure.

Rural revival? The rise in internal migration to rural areas during the COVID-19 pandemic. Who moved and Where?

During the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, anecdotal evidence of a "rural revival" emerged mirroring the "urban exodus" hypothesis. Currently, we know that internal migration to rural areas increased in some countries during 2020, although not with the intensity speculated by the media. However, little is known about the attributes of rural areas attracting migrants, demographic composition of migration inflows, and if counterurbanisation movements persisted over 2021. Drawing on administrative population register data, we analysed the main types of rural areas pulling internal migrants in Spain and their demographic characteristics, namely age, sex and place of birth during 2020 and 2020, using the period 2016-2019 as a benchmark. Our results show that in-migration increased in rural areas close to cities and with high prevalence of second homes during 2020, while out-migration declined. Exceptionally high inflows persisted over 2021, but outflows converged to figures observed prior to the pandemic. Inflows to rural areas comprised internal migrants across a wide age spectrum, from young adults and families to retired individuals. These flows also comprised foreign-born, particularly populations of a wide age range from Latin American countries.

Understanding patterns of internal migration during the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain.

Existing empirical work has analysed the impacts of COVID-19 on mortality, fertility and international migration. Less is known about the ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced the patterns of internal migration. Anecdotal reports of mass migration from large cities to less populated areas have emerged, but lack of data has prevented empirically assessing this hypothesis. Drawing on geographically granular administrative population register data, we aim to analyse the extent of change in the patterns of internal migration across the urban hierarchy in Spain during 2020. Our results show a decline of 2.5% in the number of internal migration moves, particularly during the early stages of the pandemic, returning to pre-pandemic levels in late 2020. Results also reveal unusually large net migration losses in core cities and net migration gains in rural areas. Net migration losses in cities and gains in rural areas particularly accumulated following the elimination of the strict lockdown measures in June. Yet, these net losses and gains trended to pre-pandemic levels in late 2020, and movements between cities, and between cities and suburbs, continued to dominate the internal migration system. Thus, while the COVID-19 pandemic exerted notable changes in the geographic balance of internal migration flows, these changes appear to have been temporary and did not significantly alter the existing structures of the national migration system.